NPCI chief says AI will drive India's UPI from 750 million to 1 billion daily transactions

Dilip Asbe, managing director and CEO of the National Payments Corporation of India, said artificial intelligence will be central to pushing the country's Unified Payment Interface from 750 million daily transactions to 1 billion. He spoke at Mumbai Tech Week on June 27.

UPI currently processes more than 750 million transactions each day, according to NPCI data. Asbe told TechCrunch that AI must be used for fraud detection, credit distribution, and voice-based onboarding to reach the next half billion users. "We must use AI effectively to protect our current citizens, to find fraud, and to find mules," he said.

AI as a tool for fraud prevention and credit expansion

Asbe said AI will help NPCI detect fraudulent activity and identify money mules, while also enabling credit distribution to users and merchants with digital footprints. NPCI already launched a model called FIMI to resolve user disputes, which Asbe said now serves over a million users for cancelling mandates and resolving issues. The organization demonstrated agentic commerce and payments with Razorpay last year, but a wider rollout has not followed.

Voice assistant-based payments, launched in 2023, have not seen widespread adoption. Asbe acknowledged that voice models need to be more accurate before they become a critical component of the payment ecosystem. He sees an opportunity for Indian companies to build small language models tailored to local languages and use cases, leveraging UPI's rich data set.

Market concentration and the path to competition

The UPI market remains heavily concentrated. PhonePe and Google Pay control over 80% of transaction share. A regulatory cap that would limit any single app to 30% is set to take effect on December 31, 2026, unless NPCI defers the deadline again. Asbe said switching costs between apps are low and that the concentration reflects the absence of a viable commercial model for newer entrants.

• PhonePe and Google Pay hold more than 80% of UPI transaction volume.
• The 30% market share cap per app is scheduled for enforcement on December 31, 2026.
• NPCI's own app, BHIM, holds roughly 1% market share despite growing transaction volumes.
• Asbe said newer players will invest heavily once a commercial model becomes available.

Asbe said there is no specific share target for BHIM, but as India's digital economy scales toward its largest-ever tech IPOs and $110 billion AI infrastructure plans, NPCI wants BHIM to serve as a sovereign and secure alternative. India has been debating AI sovereignty more intensely in recent weeks, with proposals for a $5 billion annual sovereign AI fund and calls to build small language models tailored to local languages.

What comes next: NPCI plans to refine its voice assistant and expand AI-driven credit and fraud detection. Asbe said systems must be able to trace the instructions and consent a user gave to an AI agent if something goes wrong. The regulatory deadline for the 30% cap could reshape the competitive landscape if enforced.