Meta CEO Zuckerberg Orders Development of Prediction Market App 'Arena'

Mark Zuckerberg has directed a small team at Meta to develop a smartphone app that would function as a prediction market, internally called Arena, according to multiple reports published June 23. The app is designed to operate independently of Facebook and Instagram, though those platforms could direct users to it.

The New York Times reported that Arena would initially rely on a video-game-style points system rather than real-money wagering, though Meta has not ruled out adding monetary betting later. Trading volume on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi reached tens of billions of dollars as of April, according to TechCrunch.

Points system and legal caution

Arena is described by sources as experimental but a top priority for Zuckerberg. The points-based approach appears designed to avoid the legal and regulatory scrutiny that has dogged real-money prediction markets. States have sued prediction market operators over alleged gambling law violations, and the current administration has countersued those states. A former special forces soldier was accused of using insider knowledge to profit from a bet on the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, and former U.S. Representative George Santos is under investigation over alleged Kalshi trades.

• Arena will be a standalone app, not integrated into Meta's existing social platforms.
• Users will earn points for correctly predicting outcomes on topics such as politics, sports, and entertainment.
• Meta has not announced a launch date or public testing timeline.
• The app is being built by a small internal team, according to employees with knowledge of the matter.
• Meta declined to comment on the reports.

Industry context and competition

Prediction markets have surged in popularity over the past year, with Polymarket and Kalshi seeing explosive growth in trading volume. X, formerly Twitter, forged a partnership with Polymarket last summer to capitalize on the trend. Arena would enter a space already crowded with established players and facing legal uncertainty. The points-based model may allow Meta to test user engagement without triggering gambling regulations, but it also limits the financial incentives that drive participation on platforms like Polymarket.

What comes next for Arena remains unclear. Meta has not confirmed a timeline for development or release. The company's history of launching experimental apps that later shut down, such as the standalone messaging app Threads, suggests Arena could face an uncertain future. If the points system proves popular, Meta may eventually introduce real-money betting, which would open the door to regulatory battles similar to those faced by its competitors.